* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072015 09/06/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 39 41 44 47 49 48 49 49 50 51 52 54 58 61 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 39 41 44 47 49 48 49 49 50 51 52 54 58 61 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 42 44 45 43 41 38 36 34 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 10 14 15 16 20 24 24 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 10 8 7 4 4 8 8 8 5 5 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 124 129 171 219 218 224 233 237 234 240 236 261 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.6 27.6 28.1 28.3 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 139 141 142 139 136 132 133 133 139 142 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 138 139 140 142 139 135 131 132 132 138 140 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 13 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 57 56 54 53 51 47 49 50 48 46 45 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 15 16 16 14 13 13 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 26 30 30 26 22 9 6 3 -6 -7 -19 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 -5 -16 -15 -10 4 10 -1 22 -14 -7 -17 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 3 4 3 -3 -7 -8 1 2 -2 -5 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1041 1174 1308 1444 1581 1878 1846 1648 1466 1276 1170 1072 846 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.7 14.1 14.6 14.9 15.0 15.3 15.6 15.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 26.9 28.2 29.5 30.8 32.1 34.9 37.8 40.7 43.7 46.8 49.6 52.4 55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 15 14 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 7 8 10 13 16 13 9 19 26 22 22 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 29. 31. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 17. 19. 23. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.7 26.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072015 GRACE 09/06/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.57 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.68 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.11 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 265.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 13.9% 9.4% 7.1% 6.5% 9.6% 10.2% 13.5% Logistic: 5.5% 15.3% 14.9% 7.1% 2.1% 3.9% 1.6% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.6% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 3.6% 10.3% 8.7% 4.7% 2.9% 4.7% 4.0% 4.9% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072015 GRACE 09/06/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 38 39 41 44 47 49 48 49 49 50 51 52 54 58 61 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 38 41 44 46 45 46 46 47 48 49 51 55 58 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 37 40 42 41 42 42 43 44 45 47 51 54 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 30 33 35 34 35 35 36 37 38 40 44 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT