* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072015 09/05/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 43 45 47 51 52 53 56 56 58 58 59 59 63 65 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 43 45 47 51 52 53 56 56 58 58 59 59 63 65 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 42 45 47 51 53 52 50 49 48 47 46 46 46 47 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 6 6 6 10 12 15 15 17 15 17 15 13 10 14 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 9 9 7 4 0 4 4 2 2 6 3 0 2 3 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 93 131 142 167 227 242 250 251 252 251 242 247 245 247 242 252 252 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.6 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 137 139 141 141 137 132 131 133 132 137 138 140 141 144 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 134 136 139 140 141 136 130 129 130 127 131 130 131 132 135 140 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 62 61 59 58 57 55 51 53 53 54 50 52 51 54 52 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 13 13 13 15 14 13 14 13 13 12 12 10 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 33 31 31 35 33 26 21 8 5 0 -14 -7 -13 -8 -14 -2 6 200 MB DIV 27 25 0 -12 -11 2 7 -2 14 16 5 -11 -22 -11 16 -11 19 700-850 TADV -7 -3 -2 0 0 -2 -3 -4 0 3 3 1 1 0 3 0 1 LAND (KM) 922 1037 1155 1289 1425 1710 1918 1800 1620 1455 1321 1228 1186 1150 1041 930 844 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.4 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.7 26.9 28.0 29.3 30.6 33.3 36.0 38.6 41.3 44.0 46.5 48.8 50.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 11 10 7 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 7 8 10 15 14 11 9 20 22 24 21 24 27 30 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 26. 28. 29. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -2. -4. -3. -6. -6. -9. -9. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 16. 17. 18. 21. 21. 23. 23. 24. 24. 28. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.5 25.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072015 SEVEN 09/05/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.58 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.66 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 16.7% 11.4% 8.5% 7.8% 11.1% 12.1% 15.5% Logistic: 7.5% 28.7% 24.4% 12.5% 5.3% 10.4% 7.0% 6.2% Bayesian: 0.9% 4.5% 2.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.9% 2.1% 0.9% Consensus: 5.0% 16.7% 12.7% 7.0% 4.4% 7.5% 7.1% 7.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072015 SEVEN 09/05/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 43 45 47 51 52 53 56 56 58 58 59 59 63 65 18HR AGO 35 34 37 39 41 43 47 48 49 52 52 54 54 55 55 59 61 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 37 41 42 43 46 46 48 48 49 49 53 55 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 29 33 34 35 38 38 40 40 41 41 45 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT