* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/05/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 34 32 34 37 40 42 44 43 42 43 43 44 45 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 34 32 34 37 40 42 44 43 42 43 43 44 45 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 35 34 33 31 31 33 37 41 45 47 47 47 46 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 38 34 29 25 22 18 11 6 11 17 22 29 25 20 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 4 2 2 0 0 0 -4 -3 -4 -3 -6 -5 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 279 284 291 304 324 356 346 237 262 243 251 248 263 291 299 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.1 26.6 25.5 25.2 24.8 24.0 23.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 138 141 141 144 138 134 126 120 109 105 102 96 91 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 121 122 123 123 127 122 118 111 103 92 89 85 81 78 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.2 -54.1 -54.6 -54.7 -55.2 -55.6 -56.5 -56.6 -56.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 5 5 4 4 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 40 39 44 46 52 53 49 47 45 43 40 39 37 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 8 8 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -44 -43 -37 -43 -20 16 16 3 -7 -19 -39 -39 -23 -6 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 -1 -24 -32 -23 15 -2 9 22 13 -8 3 -1 -11 -6 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 -1 0 3 4 -3 0 -14 -4 0 -2 -10 -8 -10 -9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2388 2378 2371 2406 2443 2453 2326 2236 2163 2123 2042 1950 1864 1752 1631 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.4 23.7 24.3 24.8 26.4 28.1 29.8 31.7 33.6 34.9 35.7 36.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.6 41.3 41.9 42.3 42.6 42.3 41.0 39.2 37.1 34.9 33.1 31.5 30.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 7 9 11 12 13 12 9 7 6 5 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 17 19 20 22 21 11 9 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 819 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. 16. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -16. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 8. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.1 40.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/05/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 41.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.10 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.53 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.06 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.22 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 347.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.57 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.56 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 6.5% 4.9% 4.3% 0.0% 5.7% 5.7% 9.5% Logistic: 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.4% 1.8% 1.6% 0.0% 2.1% 2.1% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062015 FRED 09/05/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/05/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 35 34 32 34 37 40 42 44 43 42 43 43 44 45 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 33 31 33 36 39 41 43 42 41 42 42 43 44 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 30 28 30 33 36 38 40 39 38 39 39 40 41 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 22 24 27 30 32 34 33 32 33 33 34 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT