* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/05/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 59 56 54 50 48 47 47 42 38 32 27 28 28 29 31 V (KT) LAND 65 62 59 56 54 50 48 47 47 42 38 32 27 28 28 29 31 V (KT) LGEM 65 61 57 54 51 45 41 37 35 33 31 28 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 21 21 21 21 26 23 25 22 27 28 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 5 8 11 3 3 0 3 2 2 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 273 273 267 256 251 261 259 277 276 285 288 302 299 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 131 131 131 133 132 130 128 128 126 125 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.4 -50.5 -50.6 -50.4 -51.0 -51.0 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.8 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 48 50 51 50 54 55 57 55 52 53 52 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 32 30 31 31 30 30 28 28 26 25 21 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 91 81 73 65 63 43 39 33 19 26 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 12 17 28 27 2 9 -12 0 -3 -11 -33 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 15 16 24 25 21 18 7 3 0 -4 -5 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 973 951 930 910 894 871 827 778 727 644 565 474 401 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.6 21.0 21.5 22.0 23.1 23.9 24.6 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.8 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 145.5 145.8 146.0 146.3 146.6 147.3 148.3 149.5 150.5 151.6 152.8 154.3 155.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 5 4 4 4 7 8 10 6 3 2 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -20. -23. -26. -28. -30. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -5. -8. -10. -14. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -11. -15. -17. -18. -18. -23. -27. -33. -38. -37. -37. -36. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 20.2 145.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/05/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.33 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 398.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/05/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##