* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 09/05/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 48 46 44 35 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 51 48 46 44 35 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 51 47 44 40 33 27 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 23 13 9 11 7 13 24 32 37 35 41 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -6 -3 -3 -1 2 3 5 5 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 170 177 191 199 236 277 260 247 252 267 280 291 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 23.9 23.3 22.6 21.7 20.1 17.6 16.5 15.0 14.6 14.8 15.0 13.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 103 97 89 79 63 63 64 65 65 63 62 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -55.1 -55.7 -55.7 -55.8 -56.3 -57.7 -59.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 -0.2 -0.6 -1.6 -2.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 47 47 48 47 49 55 54 46 42 43 54 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 33 32 31 27 25 25 24 22 17 13 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 86 80 75 69 57 26 -4 -22 -15 -6 8 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 60 47 0 -16 4 -8 12 30 0 -8 -8 -3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 8 4 5 13 1 -2 -3 4 6 14 37 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1475 1632 1789 1889 1747 1495 1239 1056 1029 1045 659 382 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.8 36.3 37.7 39.0 40.3 42.5 44.6 46.3 47.8 49.3 50.5 51.5 52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 164.4 164.5 164.7 164.7 164.7 164.0 161.6 157.8 152.2 145.1 139.3 135.2 131.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 13 12 12 15 18 22 22 17 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 13 CX,CY: -2/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -15. -18. -22. -24. -28. -33. -39. -43. -48. -52. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -6. -18. -28. -36. -43. -48. -55. -64. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 10. 6. 1. -2. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -23. -27. -30. -27. -25. -23. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -11. -20. -27. -34. -44. -59. -78. -96.-116.-128.-139.-152.-159. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 34.8 164.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 09/05/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.10 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 370.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.10 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 09/05/15 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING