* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KEVIN EP142015 09/04/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 55 52 48 42 33 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 56 55 52 48 42 33 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 56 54 51 47 39 33 27 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 20 25 27 25 22 25 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -1 -2 -1 1 -1 -5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 204 208 208 221 232 231 219 212 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.1 26.7 26.2 25.8 25.5 25.4 25.3 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 133 129 123 119 116 115 114 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.5 -52.7 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 50 46 41 39 37 38 36 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 14 11 9 7 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 15 20 15 2 7 6 0 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 32 15 15 9 27 22 13 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 4 7 8 3 9 3 11 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 531 489 451 438 431 479 507 558 619 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.5 22.0 22.5 22.9 23.5 23.9 24.2 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.3 115.4 115.5 115.8 116.0 116.8 117.8 118.9 120.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -10. -16. -21. -25. -27. -28. -30. -32. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -11. -17. -20. -20. -20. -19. -17. -15. -14. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -3. -7. -13. -22. -31. -39. -43. -46. -47. -48. -50. -52. -54. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.9 115.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142015 KEVIN 09/04/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.38 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 384.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142015 KEVIN 09/04/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##