* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 09/04/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 64 64 62 59 56 48 38 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 64 64 64 62 59 56 48 38 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 67 67 65 62 54 44 34 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 14 20 24 22 11 14 17 27 35 37 37 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 7 0 -6 -7 0 3 1 7 5 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 275 202 178 172 176 211 239 252 259 252 259 266 276 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 24.6 24.3 24.1 23.9 22.8 20.6 17.2 15.2 13.9 13.7 14.2 15.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 110 107 105 103 92 69 64 65 66 66 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -53.2 -53.8 -54.9 -54.7 -53.7 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 -0.5 -0.1 0.9 1.0 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 50 49 48 46 46 43 53 52 46 45 59 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 33 35 33 33 31 28 26 24 20 14 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 51 85 88 84 75 43 10 5 71 76 69 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 81 75 39 27 -1 14 16 30 10 17 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 15 14 10 4 12 18 0 8 -9 7 24 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1033 1169 1306 1448 1591 1902 1555 1205 924 911 687 145 -366 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.9 32.1 33.3 34.6 35.9 38.8 41.9 44.9 47.6 50.1 52.2 54.0 55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 163.3 163.7 164.0 164.2 164.4 164.5 163.5 161.5 157.0 150.0 142.2 133.8 125.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 14 15 16 18 23 26 27 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 767 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -13. -18. -24. -28. -32. -37. -43. -47. -52. -55. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. -1. -7. -17. -27. -34. -40. -45. -51. -60. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 9. 5. 2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. 2. -2. -4. -7. -12. -20. -32. -29. -26. -24. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -17. -27. -41. -57. -76.-100.-112.-122.-134.-139. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 30.9 163.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 09/04/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.13 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 452.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.55 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 09/04/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##