* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/04/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 33 32 29 29 28 29 34 34 35 38 41 43 47 50 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 33 32 29 29 28 29 34 34 35 38 41 43 47 50 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 32 30 26 24 23 24 26 28 29 30 32 35 39 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 35 38 38 37 28 22 14 18 29 31 30 25 24 20 19 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 0 1 3 3 0 -1 -4 -5 -7 -10 -7 -6 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 276 273 276 280 282 290 311 327 277 246 247 239 248 228 243 238 275 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.7 28.6 28.5 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 128 130 132 135 134 135 145 144 143 135 130 125 122 118 117 115 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 117 119 121 120 119 127 126 125 118 111 106 101 96 95 94 93 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.7 -55.3 -55.4 -55.7 -55.7 -56.0 -55.5 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 11 10 11 11 10 10 9 7 6 5 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 38 36 35 36 39 39 47 53 51 44 40 37 37 34 31 30 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 9 9 7 7 10 11 10 13 14 16 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -55 -49 -36 -37 -41 -30 -22 -32 -38 -62 -91 -88 -67 -68 -66 -73 200 MB DIV -18 -20 -19 -28 -23 -10 -25 4 -13 -4 -7 -15 0 -8 0 -19 -7 700-850 TADV 0 -1 2 1 0 0 2 -1 3 -1 -2 0 -3 -4 -1 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 2050 2142 2234 2320 2369 2349 2409 2536 2402 2297 2211 2167 2139 2129 2115 2103 2092 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.2 22.3 22.5 22.7 23.3 24.3 25.6 27.1 28.6 30.1 31.3 32.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.8 37.7 38.6 39.4 40.3 41.6 42.3 42.3 41.7 40.5 39.1 37.7 36.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 7 8 9 9 8 5 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 14 16 16 16 22 28 16 9 7 4 3 2 2 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 755 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 20. 19. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -15. -20. -22. -25. -27. -29. -28. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -9. -10. -11. -9. -7. -5. -3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -6. -7. -5. -1. -1. -0. 3. 6. 8. 12. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.0 36.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/04/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 46.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.04 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 375.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.54 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 1.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062015 FRED 09/04/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/04/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 33 33 32 29 29 28 29 34 34 35 38 41 43 47 50 18HR AGO 35 34 33 33 32 29 29 28 29 34 34 35 38 41 43 47 50 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 30 27 27 26 27 32 32 33 36 39 41 45 48 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 21 21 20 21 26 26 27 30 33 35 39 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT