* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/03/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 94 92 88 80 73 72 68 68 65 63 58 58 59 62 64 V (KT) LAND 95 95 94 92 88 80 73 72 68 68 65 63 58 58 59 62 64 V (KT) LGEM 95 95 93 90 87 78 71 64 56 49 45 43 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 13 15 12 17 17 25 26 23 19 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 2 2 9 10 13 4 2 0 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 273 275 278 294 287 281 266 248 263 259 277 272 282 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.3 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 137 135 134 133 131 130 130 129 128 125 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.7 -50.3 -50.5 -50.8 -50.5 -50.9 -50.2 -51.1 -50.7 -51.0 -50.7 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 50 51 50 50 52 54 55 55 55 55 54 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 33 35 36 35 35 35 36 34 34 32 32 30 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 74 74 75 78 76 64 69 61 57 46 38 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 -2 -10 1 0 43 43 56 27 32 -19 0 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 4 3 3 11 22 23 38 24 33 12 9 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1147 1123 1100 1083 1066 1036 1016 1002 987 991 975 958 943 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.0 19.2 19.5 19.7 20.3 21.2 22.3 23.4 24.5 25.4 26.2 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 143.9 144.1 144.3 144.5 144.6 144.9 145.2 145.6 146.2 146.8 147.7 148.7 149.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 18 17 13 10 7 4 3 4 4 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -19. -24. -28. -31. -34. -36. -37. -38. -41. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -3. -7. -15. -22. -23. -27. -27. -30. -32. -37. -37. -36. -33. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.7 143.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/03/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.12 1.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.31 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.16 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 653.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.18 -1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 14.6% 13.4% 10.4% 7.8% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 2.6% 0.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 5.7% 4.8% 3.8% 2.7% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/03/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##