* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/03/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 38 36 33 29 24 22 21 26 32 38 37 39 41 43 V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 38 36 33 29 24 22 21 26 32 38 37 39 41 43 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 38 37 33 29 26 25 25 28 34 39 43 46 48 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 34 32 33 36 37 32 25 19 11 9 22 21 26 24 20 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 2 1 0 1 0 2 -1 -1 -7 -5 -6 -3 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 273 282 283 283 281 285 292 303 331 325 268 235 228 229 224 228 219 SST (C) 26.5 26.8 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.0 28.4 28.7 28.7 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 118 121 126 128 131 134 135 140 145 145 137 134 130 127 125 123 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 109 113 115 118 120 119 123 126 125 117 114 110 106 105 102 100 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 -55.2 -55.2 -55.4 -55.3 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 40 39 39 39 36 38 43 47 52 59 59 54 52 49 51 48 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 11 9 8 7 6 8 11 14 13 14 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -33 -28 -34 -43 -37 -45 -35 -44 -16 -5 -3 10 0 0 6 -3 200 MB DIV -7 -2 -18 -18 -23 -24 -16 -27 9 12 20 0 7 29 -1 10 2 700-850 TADV 6 6 0 0 2 1 1 4 6 2 6 0 5 3 3 6 5 LAND (KM) 1731 1813 1895 1983 2069 2231 2372 2439 2507 2510 2397 2302 2262 2245 2248 2208 2138 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.1 22.3 22.7 23.2 23.9 24.9 26.1 27.3 28.5 29.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.7 34.5 35.3 36.1 37.0 38.6 40.0 41.0 41.5 41.6 41.3 40.6 39.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 2 6 12 15 15 16 17 19 22 23 12 9 7 6 5 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -9. -14. -17. -18. -18. -18. -19. -21. -23. -23. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -13. -10. -6. -8. -7. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -16. -18. -19. -14. -8. -2. -3. -1. 1. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.3 33.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/03/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 43.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.06 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.40 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.08 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 426.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.48 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.82 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 7.8% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 2.7% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/03/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 39 38 36 33 29 24 22 21 26 32 38 37 39 41 43 18HR AGO 40 39 38 37 35 32 28 23 21 20 25 31 37 36 38 40 42 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 33 30 26 21 19 18 23 29 35 34 36 38 40 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 28 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT