* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142015 09/03/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 31 33 33 33 31 31 31 34 37 41 43 46 49 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 31 33 33 33 31 31 31 34 37 41 43 46 49 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 29 27 26 23 22 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 10 6 9 12 13 14 14 11 8 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -1 0 -4 0 -2 -2 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 242 228 180 168 191 186 206 220 237 191 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 151 151 150 145 140 134 129 127 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.2 -51.7 -51.5 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 66 63 62 61 56 50 46 44 49 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 14 14 13 12 10 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 8 -2 -7 1 6 18 16 6 6 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 83 67 55 57 40 32 34 19 27 37 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 5 0 0 1 -1 2 1 5 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 865 804 745 694 647 543 454 402 383 396 425 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.4 18.1 18.7 19.3 20.4 21.3 22.0 22.5 22.9 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 114.9 114.6 114.6 114.8 115.1 115.6 116.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 19 15 13 11 8 6 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 25. 27. 28. 28. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -16. -19. -20. -19. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 4. 7. 11. 13. 16. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.7 115.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142015 FOURTEEN 09/03/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.79 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.56 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 22.1% 17.1% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 13.9% Logistic: 4.1% 14.2% 7.3% 4.4% 2.1% 3.2% 2.5% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 12.4% 8.2% 5.7% 0.7% 1.1% 5.8% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142015 FOURTEEN 09/03/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##