* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 09/03/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 67 67 68 68 69 67 61 53 43 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 67 67 67 68 68 69 67 61 53 43 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 67 68 67 67 65 62 55 47 39 31 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 5 13 16 11 12 19 12 18 24 29 38 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -5 -3 2 2 0 0 3 0 6 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 192 248 315 326 293 215 162 208 202 225 231 239 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.3 26.1 25.6 25.5 24.8 23.9 23.4 22.4 20.4 17.4 15.3 13.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 125 119 118 111 103 97 87 66 62 62 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -53.5 -54.0 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.4 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.1 -0.5 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 47 49 50 52 55 50 49 48 48 49 48 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 29 29 29 29 29 34 32 33 32 32 30 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 37 27 16 14 55 80 88 69 72 66 64 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 -19 -19 22 37 70 84 34 3 37 23 26 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 21 18 12 12 4 16 7 19 18 30 22 16 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 543 616 702 806 912 1143 1410 1694 1826 1532 1245 980 723 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.8 28.4 29.2 30.0 31.9 34.3 36.9 39.5 42.1 44.6 46.9 49.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 159.0 160.0 161.0 161.8 162.5 163.5 164.0 164.3 164.1 163.4 162.4 161.0 159.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 11 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. -21. -27. -33. -36. -40. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -8. -13. -20. -28. -32. -36. -42. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. -0. -2. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -4. -12. -22. -37. -58. -68. -78. -88. -94. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 27.1 159.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 09/03/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.26 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 462.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.38 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 09/03/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##