* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142015 09/02/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 34 35 36 38 38 36 35 35 38 41 45 47 50 53 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 34 35 36 38 38 36 35 35 38 41 45 47 50 53 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 31 31 29 27 24 22 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 12 14 10 8 15 14 11 8 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 0 1 -1 -4 0 -2 0 -1 -3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 199 194 207 200 171 198 183 171 195 173 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.3 26.8 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 155 152 151 150 147 143 138 134 128 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -51.9 -51.3 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 70 67 63 59 58 52 47 44 45 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 18 17 16 14 12 10 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 14 17 14 0 4 4 13 14 9 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 55 73 63 41 30 7 16 25 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 4 5 1 -1 0 1 -3 3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 942 885 832 791 752 650 543 456 402 375 367 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.6 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.6 20.6 21.4 22.0 22.6 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.9 115.1 115.3 115.4 115.5 115.2 115.0 114.8 114.8 115.1 115.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 27 21 15 13 10 7 5 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -6. -12. -16. -17. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 5. 5. 8. 11. 15. 17. 20. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.8 114.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142015 FOURTEEN 09/02/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.80 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.54 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.13 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 22.0% 17.1% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 11.4% 6.0% 3.1% 1.7% 2.5% 2.8% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 11.8% 7.8% 5.2% 0.6% 0.9% 5.7% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142015 FOURTEEN 09/02/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##