* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/02/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 92 91 90 89 86 83 84 83 81 79 78 73 73 74 76 77 V (KT) LAND 95 92 91 90 89 86 83 84 83 81 79 78 73 73 74 76 77 V (KT) LGEM 95 92 90 88 87 85 83 79 76 70 62 56 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 6 3 7 10 9 10 16 16 22 25 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 4 3 2 2 6 5 10 9 7 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 314 326 270 249 255 273 273 267 276 261 272 265 276 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.5 26.3 26.3 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 143 142 142 141 139 136 132 127 125 125 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.8 -50.5 -50.4 -50.6 -50.6 -50.8 -50.4 -50.7 -50.2 -50.2 -50.0 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 52 53 51 51 50 48 48 50 52 52 53 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 34 36 37 38 39 41 41 41 40 40 38 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 61 51 65 71 82 93 107 102 105 98 86 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 -20 -23 -22 -1 25 16 35 28 38 20 30 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 7 7 7 8 14 21 26 35 29 28 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1312 1269 1227 1192 1157 1110 1077 1050 1034 1025 1038 1067 1107 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.7 19.2 19.9 20.7 21.6 22.7 23.9 25.2 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 142.5 142.9 143.2 143.5 143.8 144.2 144.5 144.8 145.1 145.5 145.9 146.4 146.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 16 19 20 22 20 14 8 4 2 1 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -5. -10. -16. -21. -25. -29. -31. -33. -34. -36. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 6. 6. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. -12. -11. -12. -14. -16. -17. -22. -22. -21. -19. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 17.6 142.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/02/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.17 1.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.35 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.10 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 671.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.16 -0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 12.6% 12.0% 9.0% 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 6.7% 2.6% 2.6% 0.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 6.5% 4.9% 3.9% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/02/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##