* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 09/02/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 62 64 63 62 63 65 64 56 46 38 29 22 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 60 62 64 63 62 63 65 64 56 46 38 29 22 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 61 62 62 61 58 55 53 50 42 34 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 18 10 6 16 15 16 25 26 17 11 15 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 0 -1 -4 0 3 0 -3 2 0 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 210 200 256 322 306 258 174 193 181 237 241 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.1 26.6 26.4 26.2 25.6 25.2 24.3 23.9 23.0 21.8 19.5 16.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 130 128 126 119 115 106 102 93 81 62 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -53.2 -53.7 -54.4 -54.6 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.1 -0.9 -0.8 -0.5 -0.5 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 50 48 47 49 53 57 52 50 50 48 51 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 30 32 32 30 29 29 32 35 34 30 28 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 39 33 37 30 19 38 44 76 70 44 33 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 17 28 0 -35 27 35 85 38 -1 -2 34 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 16 16 11 13 0 16 12 7 8 14 16 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 463 486 525 592 674 853 1057 1274 1520 1795 1747 1441 1124 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.3 26.9 27.6 28.2 29.5 31.1 33.0 35.2 37.7 40.3 43.0 45.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 156.7 157.7 158.6 159.7 160.7 162.3 163.4 164.0 164.5 164.9 164.7 164.0 163.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 10 9 10 10 12 12 14 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 6 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -15. -20. -23. -26. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -7. -12. -14. -15. -19. -21. -24. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 5. 9. 7. 2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 3. 2. 3. 5. 4. -4. -14. -22. -31. -38. -45. -52. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 25.7 156.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 09/02/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.36 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 442.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 09/02/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##