* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/02/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 96 93 91 90 85 85 85 85 85 83 81 79 79 80 81 83 V (KT) LAND 100 96 93 91 90 85 85 85 85 85 83 81 79 79 80 81 83 V (KT) LGEM 100 96 92 89 86 82 82 81 78 73 65 60 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 6 4 7 6 7 16 16 19 26 26 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 10 7 5 4 3 7 1 7 8 7 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 294 297 291 215 227 243 246 256 267 257 266 260 270 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.1 26.6 26.3 26.4 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 143 142 142 142 140 137 133 128 125 126 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.7 -50.8 -50.3 -50.3 -50.6 -50.4 -50.7 -50.6 -50.4 -50.1 -50.1 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 54 54 54 52 52 49 49 49 57 56 57 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 35 34 34 36 36 39 40 40 41 41 39 39 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 59 57 50 64 86 102 103 100 101 91 71 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 -6 -21 -25 -20 22 4 19 30 29 26 39 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 4 7 6 4 11 16 25 31 33 25 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1376 1323 1271 1235 1200 1153 1108 1079 1062 1058 1061 1066 1085 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.6 19.1 19.8 20.5 21.5 22.5 23.6 24.6 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.9 142.4 142.8 143.1 143.4 143.8 144.2 144.5 144.8 145.1 145.5 146.0 146.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 4 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 14 16 18 20 19 15 10 5 2 1 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -12. -19. -24. -29. -33. -36. -38. -39. -40. -42. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -10. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -17. -19. -21. -21. -20. -19. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 17.5 141.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/02/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.13 0.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.24 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 673.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.16 -0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 12.9% 7.9% 6.6% 3.7% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.0% 2.9% 2.4% 1.3% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/02/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##