* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOURTEEN EP142015 09/02/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 38 40 40 37 34 32 34 35 37 39 40 42 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 38 40 40 37 34 32 34 35 37 39 40 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 31 29 27 26 24 24 24 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 11 12 7 18 15 17 12 16 18 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -7 -8 0 0 -2 0 0 1 0 -3 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 242 246 227 217 225 188 211 190 191 173 176 182 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.9 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 156 152 148 144 141 137 132 129 129 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 66 66 66 64 58 54 50 46 43 43 50 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 14 14 13 11 9 6 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 1 -5 0 2 -15 -5 -3 3 2 9 2 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 42 28 41 63 39 31 4 19 29 36 35 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 5 4 3 5 1 -1 -3 0 -4 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1102 1032 966 900 840 708 562 430 333 275 228 180 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.8 15.6 16.5 17.3 19.0 20.4 21.5 22.3 22.8 23.2 23.6 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.4 114.7 115.0 115.2 115.4 115.4 115.0 114.5 114.1 113.9 113.7 113.5 113.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 4 2 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 50 40 36 27 19 11 7 6 5 2 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -15. -17. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 10. 7. 4. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.9 114.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142015 FOURTEEN 09/02/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.83 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.61 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.31 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.21 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 25.2% 19.1% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 15.9% 13.9% Logistic: 1.9% 8.1% 3.8% 1.9% 1.6% 2.9% 6.5% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 4.4% 12.3% 7.8% 5.4% 0.6% 1.0% 7.5% 5.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142015 FOURTEEN 09/02/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##