* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/02/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 41 40 38 37 35 33 30 29 30 30 31 31 31 31 V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 41 40 38 37 35 33 30 29 30 30 31 31 31 31 V (KT) LGEM 45 43 42 41 39 37 35 34 32 32 31 31 32 34 36 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 21 26 28 27 27 21 24 26 25 19 15 15 17 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -3 -5 -2 0 0 0 0 3 0 3 -2 -1 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 242 244 249 252 258 274 276 274 277 291 311 332 343 350 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.7 26.8 27.0 27.4 28.1 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 114 115 116 116 116 120 121 123 127 136 135 137 137 134 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 106 105 105 106 105 105 108 108 110 113 120 118 118 117 114 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 10 9 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 49 47 44 43 40 39 37 39 40 45 48 53 57 58 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 16 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 5 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 4 -1 -2 -6 -20 -21 -36 -32 -35 -41 -59 -66 -80 -93 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -10 0 0 -15 0 0 -18 -17 -16 -25 -6 -19 -25 -5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 1 5 5 0 4 0 0 1 1 3 5 4 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1229 1310 1392 1470 1550 1701 1875 2040 2192 2323 2434 2473 2544 2439 2332 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.4 21.0 21.6 21.9 22.4 22.9 23.6 24.6 25.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 28.6 29.4 30.3 31.1 31.9 33.4 35.1 36.7 38.2 39.5 40.6 41.6 42.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 1 1 5 4 6 14 22 16 21 16 12 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -13. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -22. -23. -24. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. -14. -14. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.1 28.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/02/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.38 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.29 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.11 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 375.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.54 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.56 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 8.1% 5.8% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.2% 2.3% 1.9% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/02/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 43 42 41 40 38 37 35 33 30 29 30 30 31 31 31 31 18HR AGO 45 44 43 42 41 39 38 36 34 31 30 31 31 32 32 32 32 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 39 37 36 34 32 29 28 29 29 30 30 30 30 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 32 31 29 27 24 23 24 24 25 25 25 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT