* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/01/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 101 97 97 95 90 89 91 95 93 94 94 91 90 89 87 83 V (KT) LAND 105 101 97 97 95 90 89 91 95 93 94 94 91 90 89 87 83 V (KT) LGEM 105 100 96 92 90 86 84 84 85 84 83 78 73 69 66 63 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 7 8 6 5 5 0 9 12 17 20 19 18 19 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 8 4 7 4 5 7 7 6 8 8 8 8 SHEAR DIR 277 277 294 317 312 304 315 288 292 293 284 273 277 275 269 264 264 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.2 26.7 26.4 26.4 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 146 143 142 139 137 136 133 128 125 125 128 128 126 125 124 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -50.3 -50.3 -50.4 -50.0 -50.6 -49.9 -50.5 -50.1 -50.6 -50.0 -50.4 -50.0 -50.0 -49.7 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.0 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 56 56 57 55 56 57 55 54 51 50 51 54 54 54 53 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 34 34 38 37 37 38 40 41 42 43 43 41 41 41 39 36 850 MB ENV VOR 69 70 69 69 65 57 79 104 107 114 109 113 100 82 73 71 57 200 MB DIV 23 24 35 22 30 11 17 40 16 32 34 31 19 20 9 28 8 700-850 TADV 19 15 9 3 3 8 5 5 11 17 26 31 17 18 17 13 7 LAND (KM) 1635 1550 1467 1404 1341 1238 1168 1110 1066 1028 987 950 926 895 879 846 827 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.5 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.8 20.5 21.3 22.2 23.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 139.6 140.4 141.1 141.7 142.2 143.1 143.7 144.2 144.6 145.0 145.5 146.1 146.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 20 16 14 13 14 15 13 8 3 1 2 3 3 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -15. -22. -28. -33. -38. -41. -42. -44. -46. -49. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. 1. 0. -0. 1. 3. 6. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -8. -10. -15. -16. -14. -10. -12. -11. -11. -14. -15. -16. -18. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 16.7 139.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/01/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.12 0.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.31 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 669.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.16 -0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.83 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 11.0% 10.2% 7.2% 6.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 4.3% 3.6% 2.6% 2.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/01/15 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##