* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 09/01/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 64 60 58 58 60 64 67 68 70 66 64 54 50 45 42 41 V (KT) LAND 70 64 60 58 58 60 64 67 68 70 66 64 54 50 45 42 41 V (KT) LGEM 70 65 62 59 58 56 54 51 50 51 49 46 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 23 22 23 22 15 12 12 16 21 20 22 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 1 0 -3 -3 -2 3 0 -1 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 235 226 223 221 220 204 301 267 239 181 235 199 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.1 25.3 25.3 24.2 23.9 23.2 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 134 133 133 133 131 125 116 116 105 102 95 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.7 -53.2 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 54 54 56 54 56 61 63 58 61 56 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 27 28 29 31 31 32 32 34 34 37 35 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 26 28 37 37 41 31 37 58 62 72 84 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 28 38 33 31 39 8 21 62 93 39 24 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 11 14 10 17 18 15 8 17 14 18 10 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 388 403 430 460 484 547 675 842 1053 1295 1529 1766 1829 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.9 24.5 25.1 25.7 26.9 28.3 29.7 31.4 33.4 35.4 37.5 39.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 153.3 154.0 154.6 155.3 156.1 157.7 159.4 160.9 162.2 163.3 164.1 164.6 165.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 6 6 7 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -21. -23. -25. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -6. -9. -13. -15. -17. -19. -21. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 11. 11. 14. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -12. -12. -10. -6. -3. -2. -0. -4. -6. -16. -20. -25. -28. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 23.2 153.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 09/01/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.31 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 439.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 09/01/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##