* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/01/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 42 41 39 39 34 32 31 32 32 33 34 32 30 31 31 V (KT) LAND 50 46 42 41 39 39 34 32 31 32 32 33 34 32 30 31 31 V (KT) LGEM 50 45 42 39 39 37 35 33 32 32 32 34 35 36 38 41 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 15 17 22 22 25 21 19 18 20 17 15 12 6 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 6 2 -1 0 2 -1 1 2 5 2 4 0 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 256 236 240 240 241 251 252 270 281 262 265 262 309 348 360 232 225 SST (C) 26.0 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.8 27.1 27.5 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.1 27.7 27.2 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 113 115 114 114 115 116 116 121 124 129 133 133 137 137 132 126 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 107 105 105 106 105 105 109 111 115 118 116 118 117 113 107 103 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 58 57 55 52 50 45 41 38 36 38 42 47 51 57 59 59 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 17 17 16 17 14 13 13 12 12 11 10 9 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -3 -3 -8 -13 -16 -39 -38 -56 -43 -37 -23 -32 -43 -57 -64 -54 200 MB DIV 24 34 7 0 -4 -2 -16 -27 -13 -14 -21 -6 -5 3 7 14 9 700-850 TADV 3 4 4 5 11 4 6 3 0 3 -1 2 3 2 9 7 10 LAND (KM) 1037 1126 1201 1279 1361 1518 1670 1833 1996 2147 2282 2399 2471 2371 2242 2124 2024 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.5 21.1 21.8 22.5 23.2 24.1 25.2 26.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.6 27.4 28.3 29.1 30.0 31.6 33.1 34.7 36.3 37.8 39.1 40.2 40.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 6 8 14 19 17 14 11 7 5 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. -20. -21. -23. -24. -25. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -9. -11. -11. -16. -18. -19. -18. -18. -17. -16. -18. -20. -19. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.1 26.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/01/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 1.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.44 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.25 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 349.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.56 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 7.4% 5.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.8% 1.9% 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/01/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 46 42 41 39 39 34 32 31 32 32 33 34 32 30 31 31 18HR AGO 50 49 45 44 42 42 37 35 34 35 35 36 37 35 33 34 34 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 43 43 38 36 35 36 36 37 38 36 34 35 35 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 38 33 31 30 31 31 32 33 31 29 30 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT