* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/01/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 110 109 108 103 100 101 102 99 99 100 98 96 94 92 90 V (KT) LAND 115 112 110 109 108 103 100 101 102 99 99 100 98 96 94 92 90 V (KT) LGEM 115 110 106 103 101 97 92 90 89 87 83 79 74 69 66 64 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 1 4 3 5 2 3 5 7 13 14 16 16 20 19 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 5 7 6 6 6 3 4 2 7 8 9 7 11 6 6 SHEAR DIR 51 128 228 279 313 265 274 263 265 276 278 260 267 280 292 299 294 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.4 26.4 26.6 26.6 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 149 146 145 141 138 136 134 131 127 125 125 128 128 125 124 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.1 -51.2 -50.3 -50.7 -50.6 -50.4 -50.7 -50.6 -51.0 -50.6 -50.6 -50.2 -50.5 -50.5 -50.4 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 57 58 57 58 55 56 57 58 58 60 59 61 59 58 57 57 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 35 34 36 36 37 39 41 42 42 44 45 44 44 42 40 40 850 MB ENV VOR 56 53 65 70 64 42 63 85 101 112 97 98 96 74 61 61 56 200 MB DIV 33 17 26 46 44 6 19 33 45 29 23 45 35 11 0 8 15 700-850 TADV 12 12 11 6 5 4 6 5 9 10 13 20 14 21 25 20 6 LAND (KM) 1738 1642 1546 1478 1410 1294 1223 1165 1119 1088 1061 1044 1015 973 939 892 875 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.4 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.5 20.1 20.8 21.6 22.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 138.7 139.5 140.4 141.0 141.6 142.6 143.2 143.7 144.1 144.4 144.7 145.0 145.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 6 6 5 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 27 24 20 16 14 13 13 13 10 6 2 1 1 3 3 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -19. -28. -35. -42. -47. -50. -52. -54. -55. -59. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 7. 9. 10. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -7. -12. -15. -14. -13. -16. -16. -15. -17. -19. -21. -23. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 16.3 138.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/01/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.05 0.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.46 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 732.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.09 -0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 13.1% 11.8% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 2.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 5.2% 4.4% 3.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/01/15 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##