* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/01/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 54 51 50 46 41 37 35 34 36 37 39 37 37 37 37 V (KT) LAND 60 57 54 51 50 46 41 37 35 34 36 37 39 37 37 37 37 V (KT) LGEM 60 56 53 51 49 47 44 41 38 37 37 39 40 42 44 48 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 14 17 19 24 24 26 20 16 18 13 14 8 4 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 8 6 1 -1 4 0 1 1 6 7 4 1 5 -5 1 SHEAR DIR 257 250 234 243 246 247 256 271 277 267 267 257 303 330 52 139 168 SST (C) 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.6 27.0 27.4 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 112 113 114 114 114 115 116 119 123 128 132 134 135 137 136 135 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 105 106 106 105 104 105 107 111 115 117 118 117 118 116 114 109 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 60 58 58 55 53 48 44 37 39 36 39 39 44 51 48 45 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 19 18 19 18 16 15 14 13 13 12 13 10 9 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 8 -1 -5 -5 -5 -19 -33 -50 -47 -54 -42 -36 -16 5 34 30 30 200 MB DIV 23 29 36 9 6 -4 -4 -38 -13 -5 -4 6 12 32 14 14 5 700-850 TADV 1 2 4 7 9 14 3 7 1 1 0 0 3 -3 12 -2 13 LAND (KM) 936 1035 1104 1178 1257 1414 1587 1751 1915 2075 2230 2384 2490 2489 2385 2302 2218 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.5 21.1 21.7 22.3 22.9 23.6 24.4 25.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.7 26.5 27.3 28.1 29.0 30.6 32.3 33.9 35.5 37.1 38.6 40.1 41.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 8 11 17 20 16 16 12 9 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -15. -17. -17. -20. -21. -23. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -10. -14. -19. -23. -25. -26. -24. -23. -21. -23. -23. -23. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.8 25.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/01/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.42 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.16 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 385.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.53 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.82 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 9.6% 6.8% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.8% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.8% 2.6% 2.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/01/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 57 54 51 50 46 41 37 35 34 36 37 39 37 37 37 37 18HR AGO 60 59 56 53 52 48 43 39 37 36 38 39 41 39 39 39 39 12HR AGO 60 57 56 53 52 48 43 39 37 36 38 39 41 39 39 39 39 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 49 45 40 36 34 33 35 36 38 36 36 36 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT