* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 09/01/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 106 109 108 111 114 118 122 128 133 142 146 147 148 149 146 V (KT) LAND 110 108 106 109 108 111 114 118 122 128 133 142 146 147 148 149 146 V (KT) LGEM 110 108 108 109 111 117 122 123 124 125 133 144 152 157 160 157 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 15 10 6 5 8 6 13 6 4 4 3 6 8 7 3 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -6 -2 0 0 1 2 2 2 -3 -4 -5 -4 -3 -6 N/A SHEAR DIR 249 252 260 266 240 255 230 258 283 250 200 220 265 236 204 247 N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.8 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.3 29.9 29.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 162 164 163 162 160 160 159 161 166 165 165 168 165 163 N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -49.8 -50.3 -50.4 -50.2 -50.1 -50.1 -50.3 -49.8 -49.9 -49.5 -49.4 -48.9 -49.1 -48.2 -47.4 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 52 49 51 50 46 46 45 48 46 47 47 51 50 49 49 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 24 28 27 29 31 33 34 37 40 46 49 52 57 60 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -10 -13 -1 -1 15 41 40 56 58 82 88 128 157 220 259 N/A 200 MB DIV 61 35 11 21 5 -1 39 5 37 14 28 26 67 45 80 7 N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 3 3 3 2 6 2 0 0 2 1 2 2 3 N/A LAND (KM) 2005 2034 2065 2092 2119 2193 2254 2324 2404 2505 2617 2740 2866 2726 2443 2283 N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.8 23.4 23.8 24.2 24.6 24.7 24.5 24.3 24.1 23.8 23.6 23.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x N/A LONG(DEG W) 179.7 180.0 180.3 180.6 180.8 181.5 182.1 182.8 183.6 184.6 185.7 186.9 188.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 7 10 12 8 N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 31 31 32 34 35 37 43 42 37 39 38 40 39 37 41 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -10. -17. -22. -27. -29. -30. -29. -28. -27. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. 15. 17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 10. 15. 17. 24. 27. 27. 29. 28. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -1. -2. 1. 4. 8. 12. 18. 23. 32. 36. 37. 38. 39. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 22.3 179.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 09/01/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.21 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 818.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.0% 1.6% 1.3% 2.7% 2.6% 3.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 09/01/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##