* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/01/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 61 58 57 53 48 40 36 33 32 31 31 31 32 33 34 V (KT) LAND 65 62 61 58 57 53 48 40 36 33 32 31 31 31 32 33 34 V (KT) LGEM 65 62 59 57 55 51 49 45 41 38 37 37 38 39 41 43 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 16 14 13 16 21 26 27 22 22 22 19 14 13 14 17 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 5 5 2 -2 0 3 -1 0 0 6 6 9 5 1 -4 SHEAR DIR 247 250 247 238 245 241 247 258 272 269 268 279 278 273 275 270 269 SST (C) 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.6 25.4 25.7 26.3 26.4 26.9 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 114 115 114 114 112 110 108 110 116 117 123 129 132 136 134 135 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 107 106 105 103 100 97 99 105 105 110 114 115 116 114 114 111 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 -55.3 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 62 58 58 57 53 45 40 39 38 36 36 36 42 49 55 56 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 19 19 18 18 15 13 11 10 9 7 7 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 27 7 5 1 8 -21 -19 -40 -43 -65 -67 -69 -51 -26 -25 -15 -26 200 MB DIV 43 36 53 42 12 -5 -10 -10 -15 -21 -14 -6 -3 14 20 0 -20 700-850 TADV 3 4 1 3 7 12 1 4 1 2 0 -1 1 0 0 4 2 LAND (KM) 845 951 1038 1111 1188 1353 1514 1668 1832 2014 2189 2365 2500 2499 2401 2313 2227 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.4 21.1 21.7 22.3 22.9 23.6 24.5 25.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.9 25.8 26.6 27.4 28.3 30.0 31.6 33.1 34.7 36.5 38.2 39.9 41.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 8 6 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 3 11 18 15 17 12 10 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. -24. -25. -24. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -7. -8. -12. -17. -25. -29. -32. -33. -34. -34. -34. -33. -32. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.5 24.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/01/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.47 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.12 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 404.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.51 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.83 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 11.5% 8.1% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 2.3% 1.3% 1.2% 0.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.6% 3.2% 2.8% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/01/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 62 61 58 57 53 48 40 36 33 32 31 31 31 32 33 34 18HR AGO 65 64 63 60 59 55 50 42 38 35 34 33 33 33 34 35 36 12HR AGO 65 62 61 58 57 53 48 40 36 33 32 31 31 31 32 33 34 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 54 50 45 37 33 30 29 28 28 28 29 30 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT