* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/31/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 84 78 74 71 67 70 72 74 75 77 82 72 66 61 58 59 V (KT) LAND 90 84 78 74 71 67 70 72 74 75 77 82 72 66 61 58 59 V (KT) LGEM 90 85 81 78 74 68 64 61 59 58 60 62 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 21 24 27 23 21 20 9 15 13 18 34 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 1 0 4 -3 -2 -2 3 4 6 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 233 224 229 231 227 226 211 225 291 247 219 201 177 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.1 27.2 26.6 26.4 25.9 25.5 24.4 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 143 141 137 135 136 129 127 122 118 107 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.4 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -51.4 -52.2 -52.1 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.0 0.2 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 58 57 57 60 56 61 60 61 63 65 67 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 27 27 27 30 29 31 32 35 42 41 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 39 31 32 35 32 47 52 48 54 93 131 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 41 24 27 27 29 8 8 15 35 98 127 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 15 13 10 8 9 17 16 15 20 23 33 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 422 395 380 366 362 389 421 487 627 786 982 1210 1426 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.8 22.4 23.0 23.5 24.5 25.5 26.6 27.8 29.0 30.6 32.6 34.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 151.2 151.9 152.6 153.3 154.1 155.6 157.3 159.0 160.5 161.8 162.7 163.3 163.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 20 17 11 8 8 10 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -0. -4. -9. -14. -19. -23. -27. -30. -33. -34. -36. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -9. -9. -9. -10. -14. -17. -20. -22. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 3. 3. 6. 8. 11. 20. 16. 15. 13. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -16. -19. -23. -20. -18. -16. -15. -13. -8. -18. -24. -29. -32. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 21.3 151.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/31/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.20 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 546.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/31/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##