* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/31/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 115 114 116 115 120 123 122 127 133 140 141 141 141 139 138 V (KT) LAND 115 115 115 114 116 115 120 123 122 127 133 140 141 141 141 139 138 V (KT) LGEM 115 114 115 116 117 123 129 127 124 123 123 130 140 144 151 153 150 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 9 7 7 5 8 12 14 11 5 5 9 9 9 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 -1 1 -1 4 5 8 6 8 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 255 221 223 243 242 231 255 246 276 271 279 216 213 191 238 236 242 SST (C) 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.9 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.3 29.9 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 161 162 163 163 162 159 158 157 162 166 164 166 169 164 165 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -49.9 -49.8 -50.1 -50.2 -49.9 -50.4 -50.0 -50.4 -50.0 -50.1 -49.4 -49.2 -48.4 -48.7 -48.2 -48.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.9 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 13 12 13 12 12 12 12 12 13 11 12 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 52 52 51 49 49 46 45 44 47 47 47 46 47 46 47 46 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 27 25 27 27 32 32 31 35 38 43 45 49 52 55 59 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -6 -4 -15 -2 1 25 39 37 55 67 89 120 147 192 244 290 200 MB DIV 19 29 28 17 15 -12 23 20 -4 28 26 35 27 43 61 44 38 700-850 TADV 0 -5 0 4 8 2 2 5 2 -1 -1 -3 -3 -1 3 6 4 LAND (KM) 1977 2004 2034 2060 2087 2161 2223 2285 2355 2446 2556 2688 2811 2784 2620 2474 2312 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.4 23.0 23.5 23.9 24.4 24.6 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.3 24.0 23.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 179.4 179.7 180.0 180.3 180.5 181.2 181.8 182.4 183.1 184.0 185.1 186.4 187.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 5 6 6 4 7 12 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 40 32 31 31 32 35 37 39 42 37 35 36 35 51 53 41 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -12. -20. -26. -31. -34. -35. -34. -33. -32. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 15. 15. 16. 18. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 0. 2. 2. 7. 9. 8. 14. 18. 22. 23. 25. 26. 26. 26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. 1. 0. 5. 8. 7. 12. 18. 25. 26. 26. 26. 24. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 21.7 179.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/31/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.15 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.60 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 844.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 3.0% 2.2% 3.5% 3.1% 5.3% 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/31/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##