* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 08/31/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 70 68 66 59 51 47 42 38 34 33 31 31 32 35 37 V (KT) LAND 70 71 70 68 66 59 51 47 42 38 34 33 31 31 32 35 37 V (KT) LGEM 70 71 70 68 66 61 54 51 48 45 43 42 41 41 42 44 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 8 11 15 17 24 24 21 20 23 23 22 17 14 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 8 8 7 8 5 -3 0 7 2 2 0 3 2 4 1 2 SHEAR DIR 271 271 247 244 241 234 251 255 256 264 267 269 275 274 285 290 313 SST (C) 26.0 25.9 26.1 26.1 26.1 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.9 26.2 26.3 26.6 27.1 27.2 27.8 28.1 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 114 113 115 115 115 112 110 109 112 115 116 119 124 125 132 136 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 107 108 108 107 103 100 99 102 104 104 106 110 110 116 119 123 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 63 62 58 57 54 51 45 41 39 40 38 39 40 42 42 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 21 21 19 17 17 16 15 13 12 11 10 9 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 32 30 24 5 8 5 -13 -10 -28 -31 -62 -42 -50 -45 -41 -32 -36 200 MB DIV 57 66 65 41 32 4 -5 -17 7 -11 -18 -13 -10 -12 0 0 -3 700-850 TADV -10 -6 0 3 5 14 15 3 9 3 5 4 2 3 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 638 749 861 973 1069 1241 1419 1600 1783 1957 2130 2282 2415 2380 2352 2269 2160 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.8 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.5 20.1 20.7 21.3 21.8 22.4 22.9 23.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 23.3 24.2 25.1 26.0 26.9 28.8 30.6 32.4 34.2 35.9 37.6 39.1 40.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 6 16 10 14 15 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -16. -18. -20. -22. -23. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -9. -12. -15. -20. -21. -24. -25. -25. -24. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -2. -4. -11. -19. -23. -28. -32. -36. -37. -39. -39. -38. -35. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 16.1 23.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 08/31/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.51 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.09 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 420.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.49 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.82 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 14.6% 10.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 7.5% 4.8% 4.4% 1.8% 3.0% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.0% 0.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 7.6% 5.4% 4.3% 0.6% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 08/31/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 3( 11) 0( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 71 70 68 66 59 51 47 42 38 34 33 31 31 32 35 37 18HR AGO 70 69 68 66 64 57 49 45 40 36 32 31 29 29 30 33 35 12HR AGO 70 67 66 64 62 55 47 43 38 34 30 29 27 27 28 31 33 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 58 51 43 39 34 30 26 25 23 23 24 27 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT