* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/31/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 130 131 129 127 124 119 113 109 104 102 102 103 100 100 100 99 V (KT) LAND 130 130 131 129 127 124 119 113 109 104 102 102 103 100 100 100 99 V (KT) LGEM 130 129 126 124 121 117 110 101 90 79 74 74 76 80 82 82 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 1 2 2 1 6 6 12 11 5 9 11 14 14 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 2 4 9 13 14 12 11 8 4 0 2 4 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 16 21 33 67 37 360 17 318 306 306 265 249 249 252 251 250 250 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.4 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.4 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 154 153 151 147 140 136 134 132 132 131 129 127 125 125 126 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.5 -50.3 -49.8 -50.1 -50.5 -50.1 -50.4 -50.3 -50.8 -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 54 53 52 54 55 57 57 60 62 64 63 61 59 59 56 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 37 38 35 35 39 40 39 40 39 39 41 43 43 44 46 46 850 MB ENV VOR 71 58 46 49 50 55 49 46 59 61 87 95 99 105 100 107 104 200 MB DIV 27 31 40 22 6 22 5 40 16 34 24 20 22 24 18 24 -15 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -1 4 10 11 15 16 13 7 8 6 10 17 19 10 LAND (KM) 2329 2191 2053 1934 1816 1635 1499 1396 1306 1249 1193 1140 1100 1076 1051 1025 1010 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.2 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.4 20.0 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.3 134.6 135.8 136.9 137.9 139.5 140.7 141.6 142.4 142.9 143.4 143.9 144.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 11 9 7 6 4 4 3 3 4 3 4 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 26 28 39 50 36 25 14 9 7 6 6 5 4 2 1 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -7. -14. -25. -36. -46. -54. -60. -64. -65. -66. -69. -72. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 1. 1. 4. 6. 6. 8. 8. 7. 9. 11. 9. 10. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. -1. -3. -6. -11. -17. -21. -26. -28. -28. -27. -30. -30. -30. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 15.2 133.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/31/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 947.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 2.5% 2.5% 2.3% 0.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/31/15 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##