* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/31/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 95 90 84 78 71 69 69 72 72 70 72 69 64 60 59 59 V (KT) LAND 100 95 90 84 78 71 69 69 72 72 70 72 69 64 60 59 59 V (KT) LGEM 100 97 92 88 83 73 66 61 57 54 53 56 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 24 23 26 27 23 21 20 14 15 17 26 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 6 5 6 1 5 0 0 -4 -1 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 243 233 221 227 222 220 210 201 268 236 198 190 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.5 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.4 25.9 25.3 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 142 143 142 138 134 134 130 127 122 116 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.6 -0.1 0.4 0.0 0.2 -0.2 0.5 0.8 1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 60 62 61 59 58 58 59 60 61 61 64 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 27 27 27 27 29 29 31 32 32 35 40 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 46 45 51 49 42 55 52 61 57 59 91 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 10 31 51 36 22 31 16 21 20 33 102 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 3 6 12 13 8 10 13 16 18 16 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 525 471 431 411 402 379 399 426 481 604 796 1030 1267 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.7 21.3 21.9 22.5 23.5 24.5 25.4 26.5 27.6 29.1 31.0 32.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 149.8 150.5 151.1 151.8 152.4 153.8 155.3 156.9 158.6 160.4 161.8 162.9 164.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 13 17 21 18 8 7 8 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -14. -20. -26. -31. -35. -38. -41. -42. -44. -46. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -13. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -11. -14. -19. -22. -23. -24. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 12. 16. 14. 13. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -22. -29. -31. -31. -28. -28. -30. -28. -31. -36. -40. -41. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 20.1 149.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/31/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.11 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 38.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 541.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/31/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##