* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 08/31/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 77 77 75 70 61 53 48 42 40 36 35 33 34 36 39 V (KT) LAND 70 74 77 77 75 70 61 53 48 42 40 36 35 33 34 36 39 V (KT) LGEM 70 75 76 75 72 66 59 53 50 47 45 44 44 45 45 46 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 4 8 12 16 20 24 21 21 18 18 19 19 23 19 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 12 11 9 8 9 1 -3 5 1 4 1 0 2 1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 298 255 255 230 236 234 251 258 260 268 269 275 276 269 265 270 269 SST (C) 27.1 26.0 26.0 26.2 26.2 26.0 25.7 25.6 25.6 26.1 26.3 26.3 26.8 27.1 27.3 27.7 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 126 114 114 116 116 114 111 110 110 114 116 116 121 124 126 131 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 108 108 109 108 105 102 100 100 104 104 103 108 110 111 115 119 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.1 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 67 64 61 57 57 56 50 45 44 38 42 39 42 39 42 42 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 23 21 20 20 18 16 16 14 13 11 11 9 9 8 10 850 MB ENV VOR 47 36 32 27 18 11 -12 -11 -25 -41 -47 -50 -33 -45 -19 -22 -58 200 MB DIV 42 57 72 71 48 23 -16 -21 -12 -22 -8 -20 -22 -10 6 1 -4 700-850 TADV -9 -7 -4 0 4 9 13 9 3 9 0 3 0 0 2 -2 5 LAND (KM) 539 645 754 866 980 1162 1333 1511 1703 1896 2060 2212 2361 2379 2345 2304 2217 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 16.0 16.6 17.3 17.9 18.9 19.6 20.2 20.8 21.4 22.0 22.5 23.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 22.5 23.4 24.3 25.2 26.1 27.9 29.7 31.5 33.4 35.3 36.9 38.4 39.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 11 13 10 13 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -21. -23. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -13. -15. -19. -20. -22. -22. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 7. 5. -0. -9. -17. -22. -28. -30. -34. -35. -37. -36. -34. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 15.3 22.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 08/31/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 4.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.51 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.12 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 393.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.52 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.84 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.0% 17.2% 12.3% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.2% 17.7% 12.7% 11.6% 4.1% 5.9% 1.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 20.4% 6.3% 10.0% 1.5% 3.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 16.6% 13.7% 11.7% 7.5% 2.5% 2.3% 0.5% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 08/31/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 6( 10) 5( 14) 4( 18) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 74 77 77 75 70 61 53 48 42 40 36 35 33 34 36 39 18HR AGO 70 69 72 72 70 65 56 48 43 37 35 31 30 28 29 31 34 12HR AGO 70 67 66 66 64 59 50 42 37 31 29 25 24 22 23 25 28 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 58 53 44 36 31 25 23 19 18 16 17 19 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT