* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 08/30/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 61 65 66 67 65 62 59 56 53 49 46 46 48 47 V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 61 65 66 67 65 62 59 56 53 49 46 46 48 47 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 58 63 66 68 67 62 56 52 49 47 45 45 45 45 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 5 2 0 8 16 18 20 18 17 16 16 16 17 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 9 11 13 9 4 3 0 2 3 1 2 1 3 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 23 66 91 61 107 211 215 231 249 243 250 257 260 244 251 248 262 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.1 26.5 26.1 25.8 25.9 25.7 25.9 26.2 26.0 26.4 26.8 27.1 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 134 133 126 119 115 112 113 111 113 116 114 117 122 125 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 130 129 120 112 108 105 104 103 105 108 106 108 112 115 119 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -54.1 -54.3 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 70 71 70 69 65 59 56 49 43 42 36 36 34 35 32 33 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 19 20 21 20 21 19 17 17 15 13 12 10 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 62 64 69 59 56 40 33 32 4 12 -14 -9 -10 0 -15 -15 -21 200 MB DIV 28 24 35 55 53 52 19 12 -11 -13 7 -5 0 -2 13 -7 -6 700-850 TADV -14 -12 -8 -9 -9 1 11 15 11 6 12 4 6 4 3 4 3 LAND (KM) 287 333 411 511 618 832 1063 1285 1489 1688 1922 2157 2171 2043 1934 1839 1735 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.8 14.4 15.0 15.6 16.8 17.7 18.5 19.0 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 19.5 20.4 21.3 22.2 23.2 25.0 27.0 29.0 31.1 33.1 35.4 37.7 40.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 10 11 10 11 11 9 10 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 9 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 3 6 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -18. -18. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 20. 21. 22. 20. 17. 14. 11. 8. 4. 1. 1. 3. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.1 19.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 08/30/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 4.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.57 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.49 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 17.4% 11.8% 8.6% 7.6% 10.7% 11.6% 0.0% Logistic: 11.1% 19.8% 15.8% 8.1% 1.8% 4.6% 3.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 12.0% 16.0% 13.1% 1.0% 1.4% 4.5% 5.3% 0.0% Consensus: 10.0% 17.7% 13.5% 5.9% 3.6% 6.6% 6.7% 0.2% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 08/30/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 3( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 51 56 61 65 66 67 65 62 59 56 53 49 46 46 48 47 18HR AGO 45 44 49 54 58 59 60 58 55 52 49 46 42 39 39 41 40 12HR AGO 45 42 41 46 50 51 52 50 47 44 41 38 34 31 31 33 32 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 40 41 39 36 33 30 27 23 20 20 22 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT