* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/29/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 118 117 116 115 110 108 111 114 110 111 108 108 108 108 105 104 V (KT) LAND 120 118 117 116 115 110 108 111 114 110 111 108 108 108 108 105 104 V (KT) LGEM 120 118 116 115 114 110 105 100 96 91 86 83 82 84 86 84 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 14 14 10 8 6 3 3 1 7 3 4 1 8 14 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -2 0 4 4 10 11 7 4 6 6 4 3 3 7 SHEAR DIR 349 356 356 1 1 2 357 35 321 235 313 262 294 296 239 251 245 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.2 28.4 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 158 160 158 153 147 148 143 139 135 135 134 133 131 130 130 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.6 -50.9 -50.8 -50.7 -50.3 -50.3 -50.0 -50.6 -50.5 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 63 61 58 57 57 57 59 63 67 67 65 65 66 65 68 68 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 33 33 35 35 36 39 40 39 41 40 42 43 45 44 45 850 MB ENV VOR 53 60 59 51 55 75 67 74 79 86 91 103 107 123 126 136 137 200 MB DIV 132 96 53 61 75 49 55 29 50 30 46 27 25 33 38 56 63 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -9 -6 -6 -5 0 10 10 6 5 3 4 5 6 13 23 LAND (KM) 1972 2019 2071 2133 2184 2302 2172 1948 1761 1619 1508 1420 1349 1290 1238 1213 1187 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.2 15.0 15.6 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.9 126.9 127.9 129.0 130.2 132.5 134.7 136.7 138.4 139.7 140.7 141.5 142.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 11 12 12 11 11 9 7 6 4 4 3 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 37 40 44 53 31 22 15 47 26 18 10 9 8 7 5 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -8. -17. -26. -34. -40. -45. -49. -49. -51. -52. -56. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -4. 1. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 9. 12. 10. 13. 11. 12. 13. 13. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -10. -12. -9. -6. -10. -9. -12. -12. -12. -12. -15. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 12.6 125.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/29/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.10 0.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.58 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.60 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 643.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.19 -1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.38 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 20.8% 17.2% 13.0% 10.7% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 7.8% 6.1% 4.5% 3.8% 3.8% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/29/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##