* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/29/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 124 131 133 134 130 122 121 119 119 120 120 122 122 124 127 127 V (KT) LAND 110 124 131 133 134 130 122 121 119 119 120 120 122 122 124 127 127 V (KT) LGEM 110 124 132 136 136 132 129 128 124 119 118 118 121 124 132 138 135 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 3 6 8 8 7 3 4 7 8 12 11 8 6 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -5 -3 0 0 0 1 5 3 -1 -2 2 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 275 300 261 233 220 235 254 243 236 205 256 257 265 283 299 286 236 SST (C) 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.4 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.2 28.1 29.5 29.0 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 161 160 159 155 155 151 146 143 144 145 145 146 161 154 149 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.8 -50.6 -50.7 -50.7 -49.7 -50.2 -49.7 -50.5 -49.9 -50.3 -49.7 -49.8 -49.3 -49.6 -49.1 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 13 13 12 13 12 13 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 51 50 53 54 54 51 52 48 47 47 48 49 51 52 51 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 20 20 23 24 24 27 29 31 33 34 39 42 44 47 47 850 MB ENV VOR 18 17 21 14 11 9 -3 -14 -11 3 16 35 45 62 85 106 132 200 MB DIV -12 2 7 -4 -6 30 -4 -9 -11 3 20 20 22 20 1 37 37 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 0 1 3 1 0 2 2 0 1 5 3 2 3 1 LAND (KM) 1589 1650 1712 1766 1823 1908 1946 1983 2025 2058 2110 2181 2253 2467 2801 2791 2604 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.3 18.6 19.1 19.5 20.5 21.7 22.8 23.6 24.1 24.3 24.4 24.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 174.9 175.6 176.3 177.0 177.6 178.6 179.1 179.5 179.9 180.2 180.7 181.4 182.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 4 6 12 12 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 46 45 45 44 43 42 36 23 18 16 19 24 25 26 28 23 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -11. -19. -25. -30. -34. -36. -36. -37. -36. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 12. 16. 16. 14. 9. 3. -3. -6. -6. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 17. 17. 19. 21. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 24. 24. 24. 24. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 14. 21. 23. 24. 20. 12. 12. 9. 10. 10. 10. 12. 12. 14. 17. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 18.0 174.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/29/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.19 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 45.0 -22.0 to 44.0 1.00 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 748.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.08 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 90.9% 62.6% 80.0% 84.0% 92.7% 85.2% 78.7% 2.6% Bayesian: 3.2% 7.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/29/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##