* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/29/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 88 93 95 99 96 91 87 83 78 75 73 73 73 74 75 V (KT) LAND 80 84 88 93 95 99 96 91 87 83 78 75 73 73 73 74 75 V (KT) LGEM 80 82 85 87 90 94 93 89 85 81 76 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 4 1 3 8 8 10 13 19 22 23 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -5 -6 -6 0 5 5 4 -3 4 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 296 300 7 243 268 245 251 219 209 210 215 226 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.7 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.2 27.4 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 147 143 140 145 144 146 143 143 145 137 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -50.9 -51.8 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 61 60 59 61 61 63 63 62 58 56 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 23 26 25 28 27 27 27 28 27 27 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 40 39 40 40 47 69 69 67 79 83 78 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 21 19 16 10 31 20 27 47 39 34 11 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 3 4 2 5 9 10 6 10 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1076 987 898 805 712 538 371 224 168 155 217 268 334 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.8 17.2 18.1 19.0 20.0 21.0 22.0 23.1 24.1 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 145.6 146.3 147.0 147.8 148.5 149.9 151.3 152.7 154.0 155.3 156.5 157.7 158.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 26 27 26 28 32 27 32 24 20 23 14 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 15. 19. 16. 11. 7. 3. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 15.4 145.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/29/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.32 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.96 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 473.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 28.4% 36.4% 24.2% 22.7% 30.4% 8.7% 2.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 13.2% 2.4% 1.3% 7.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/29/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##