* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/29/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 74 80 87 98 104 105 104 107 106 110 114 113 114 119 123 V (KT) LAND 65 69 74 80 87 98 104 105 104 107 106 110 114 113 114 119 123 V (KT) LGEM 65 69 73 78 85 99 111 118 120 118 116 118 119 118 120 126 134 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 8 5 5 5 3 6 8 9 4 5 10 11 6 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 -1 -3 -1 3 1 0 0 3 7 4 4 2 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 238 248 253 233 226 217 242 257 238 258 244 256 249 277 302 261 197 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.8 28.6 28.8 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 156 160 161 158 155 150 145 142 143 143 151 149 151 155 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -50.8 -50.6 -50.7 -49.8 -50.2 -49.6 -50.4 -50.2 -50.4 -49.9 -49.9 -49.6 -49.7 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 12 13 12 13 13 13 12 13 12 12 12 13 12 13 700-500 MB RH 50 51 55 55 56 57 57 55 51 51 51 50 53 55 56 59 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 19 20 22 24 25 25 29 30 33 38 38 39 44 48 850 MB ENV VOR 13 16 30 27 26 18 17 5 -4 -8 5 22 43 49 77 74 97 200 MB DIV -6 -16 -5 3 12 7 50 -6 18 -8 -11 13 3 18 21 25 23 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -2 1 1 3 4 4 5 5 3 2 3 5 7 6 5 LAND (KM) 1400 1469 1538 1596 1654 1755 1827 1895 1942 1994 2037 2101 2155 2178 2362 2485 2649 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.9 18.0 18.3 18.5 19.3 20.4 21.6 22.7 23.5 24.1 24.5 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 172.9 173.7 174.4 175.0 175.7 176.9 177.8 178.6 179.1 179.6 180.0 180.6 181.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 5 4 3 3 3 6 7 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 55 52 48 45 45 46 45 37 24 17 14 18 20 28 34 37 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 49.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 16. 16. 18. 20. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 17. 17. 21. 24. 22. 21. 23. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 22. 33. 39. 40. 39. 42. 41. 45. 49. 48. 49. 54. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.7 172.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/29/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.53 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 425.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 14.3% 28.1% 24.4% 18.3% 25.7% 30.6% 29.6% 3.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 21.1% 2.0% 0.9% 5.0% 4.4% 4.8% 5.8% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/29/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##