* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/28/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 71 81 92 102 120 127 128 124 121 115 108 107 99 99 97 94 V (KT) LAND 60 71 81 92 102 120 127 128 124 121 115 108 107 99 99 97 94 V (KT) LGEM 60 70 80 90 99 120 135 137 127 120 111 101 94 90 90 89 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 5 6 6 7 6 8 6 6 8 6 7 9 8 8 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -1 -3 -4 -2 0 -1 0 1 6 9 8 4 4 5 SHEAR DIR 305 333 353 32 58 40 26 27 355 356 357 39 16 2 345 332 326 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.3 28.7 28.5 28.4 27.8 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 159 159 160 158 152 150 149 142 143 140 140 138 137 136 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.1 -51.4 -50.8 -51.1 -50.4 -50.7 -50.4 -51.1 -50.5 -51.2 -50.8 -51.2 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 72 70 72 70 69 65 60 61 61 61 65 67 67 63 63 62 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 21 23 25 29 32 34 36 39 39 39 42 39 43 43 43 850 MB ENV VOR -3 3 8 15 28 59 70 75 80 69 69 61 64 64 81 87 101 200 MB DIV 98 96 71 71 106 109 122 107 102 61 35 32 66 18 37 6 29 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 -3 -5 -4 1 4 5 6 4 8 8 LAND (KM) 1535 1612 1690 1757 1828 1933 2036 2144 2237 2313 2097 1907 1760 1666 1586 1499 1422 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.7 13.2 13.8 14.6 15.4 16.1 16.6 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.3 120.5 121.6 122.7 123.7 125.5 127.3 129.2 131.3 133.4 135.3 137.0 138.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 9 10 10 11 10 9 8 5 4 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 32 35 36 32 30 29 31 25 19 18 14 28 23 25 23 13 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 82.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 14. 20. 24. 29. 29. 27. 28. 22. 24. 22. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 3. 6. 11. 16. 25. 23. 13. 3. -3. -9. -13. -15. -16. -15. -15. -14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 11. 21. 32. 42. 60. 67. 68. 64. 61. 55. 48. 47. 39. 39. 37. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 12.3 119.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/28/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.60 19.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 20.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.77 18.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.63 14.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 186.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 -15.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 19.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 14.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.30 3.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 75% is 11.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 100% is 7.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 99% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 97% is 16.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 85% is 20.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 91% is 13.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 78% is 13.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 56% is 11.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 75.2% 100.0% 98.5% 96.5% 85.4% 91.1% 77.6% 56.1% Logistic: 78.9% 91.2% 87.4% 84.6% 82.4% 84.4% 72.9% 24.7% Bayesian: 75.0% 93.7% 94.4% 92.6% 74.4% 90.3% 62.4% 4.8% Consensus: 76.3% 95.0% 93.4% 91.2% 80.8% 88.6% 71.0% 28.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/28/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##