* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/28/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 37 35 35 34 37 42 50 55 63 72 77 82 80 80 74 V (KT) LAND 40 39 37 32 31 33 36 42 49 54 63 71 77 82 80 79 74 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 33 35 31 32 31 32 36 41 49 58 65 70 73 73 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 25 28 28 26 23 18 9 13 13 15 18 20 17 17 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 3 2 1 1 -3 -1 -1 -3 -2 -4 -4 -4 1 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 292 291 294 291 280 287 291 291 232 248 224 226 224 235 224 243 245 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.4 30.4 31.1 30.3 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 152 154 157 156 159 171 170 170 170 168 164 163 159 157 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 149 150 150 153 149 149 163 170 151 146 142 136 134 129 127 122 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 12 12 12 13 12 11 11 10 8 9 6 8 6 7 700-500 MB RH 53 54 57 56 57 57 59 62 65 62 60 56 56 57 56 60 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 11 11 9 10 12 14 15 18 21 24 27 27 28 24 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -15 -14 -9 -18 -46 -48 -63 -40 -52 -16 0 12 6 29 21 42 200 MB DIV 53 43 13 11 7 15 15 21 37 20 51 33 39 37 62 41 68 700-850 TADV -7 -3 -1 0 -3 -3 -4 2 2 3 2 8 4 13 7 9 3 LAND (KM) 192 56 21 0 -14 122 158 200 167 82 38 66 96 130 114 80 50 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.5 18.2 18.9 19.6 21.0 22.4 23.8 25.0 26.1 27.2 28.5 29.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.6 66.0 67.4 68.8 70.2 73.0 75.3 77.4 78.7 79.3 79.8 80.0 80.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 15 15 15 14 12 10 8 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 39 43 52 58 78 46 75 64 75 53 45 39 36 36 32 30 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 28. 31. 33. 33. 33. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -1. 3. 5. 9. 8. 8. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -3. 2. 10. 15. 23. 32. 37. 42. 40. 40. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.8 64.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/28/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.20 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.33 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.73 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.26 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.06 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 258.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.3% 5.5% 4.6% 0.0% 6.6% 6.9% 14.6% Logistic: 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 1.8% 5.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 3.0% 1.9% 1.6% 0.0% 2.4% 2.9% 6.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/28/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/28/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 37 32 31 33 36 42 49 54 63 71 77 82 80 79 74 18HR AGO 40 39 37 32 31 33 36 42 49 54 63 71 77 82 80 79 74 12HR AGO 40 37 36 31 30 32 35 41 48 53 62 70 76 81 79 78 73 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 31 34 40 47 52 61 69 75 80 78 77 72 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT