* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/27/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 88 92 96 99 101 103 100 95 94 90 89 87 84 82 80 V (KT) LAND 80 84 88 92 96 99 101 103 100 95 94 90 89 87 84 82 80 V (KT) LGEM 80 83 86 88 91 96 102 105 105 102 96 90 85 81 78 77 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 12 11 10 11 2 2 8 11 14 18 22 18 22 27 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -5 -6 1 3 2 -1 0 -3 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 87 78 76 74 73 108 68 185 274 250 238 219 231 246 260 242 225 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.2 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.3 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 151 150 149 147 145 142 143 143 146 146 142 139 136 135 140 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.8 -0.1 0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 64 67 67 67 66 63 59 55 56 58 62 60 61 56 55 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 23 23 25 26 25 28 29 27 29 28 30 31 32 34 34 850 MB ENV VOR 59 57 51 42 48 54 48 58 52 63 75 70 83 96 106 118 117 200 MB DIV 59 55 54 45 25 3 15 -5 -3 30 49 48 62 26 48 33 14 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 4 8 13 10 2 7 3 4 LAND (KM) 1722 1603 1484 1370 1256 1072 898 730 562 415 257 126 65 35 68 95 146 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.2 13.6 14.1 14.5 15.3 16.1 16.8 17.5 18.2 19.0 19.7 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 140.3 141.3 142.3 143.3 144.2 145.7 147.1 148.5 149.9 151.1 152.4 153.6 154.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 16 22 25 22 26 30 34 29 34 36 21 13 8 11 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -0. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 7. 9. 8. 10. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 20. 15. 14. 10. 9. 7. 4. 2. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 12.7 140.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/27/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.35 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 329.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.97 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 28.1% 38.6% 20.3% 17.3% 7.9% 2.7% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 6.3% 38.7% 15.0% 7.9% 1.5% 5.0% 0.7% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/27/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##