* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/27/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 63 65 69 71 74 74 79 79 84 87 90 94 99 106 V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 63 65 69 71 74 74 79 79 84 87 90 94 99 106 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 62 64 66 70 73 75 75 78 81 83 87 92 101 114 126 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 16 15 13 13 13 14 10 10 11 14 13 17 8 3 1 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 0 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 -4 -4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 255 269 277 273 254 252 250 265 242 244 249 242 247 231 204 313 323 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.3 29.3 29.0 29.0 29.5 29.5 28.8 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 148 148 150 156 156 153 154 159 159 151 147 147 146 149 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -50.9 -50.6 -50.5 -50.1 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.1 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 56 58 58 60 60 59 60 64 65 67 64 62 58 55 51 48 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 16 17 18 19 20 20 24 23 27 29 31 32 34 38 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -12 -2 11 22 22 18 21 5 -3 -15 -11 -2 19 26 61 67 200 MB DIV 1 3 4 21 14 10 9 24 5 44 52 39 7 -9 1 0 -11 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 0 2 1 1 2 5 4 8 6 7 4 2 2 0 LAND (KM) 920 953 986 1026 1066 1166 1267 1372 1471 1556 1614 1654 1702 1851 1911 1973 2055 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 17.8 17.7 17.7 17.6 17.5 17.6 17.9 18.5 19.5 20.8 22.4 24.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 168.0 168.3 168.6 169.0 169.4 170.4 171.5 172.7 173.9 175.0 175.8 176.3 176.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 5 5 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 49 50 52 53 54 53 53 55 43 40 55 38 22 19 21 19 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 15. 16. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 15. 17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 14. 12. 16. 17. 17. 17. 17. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 14. 16. 19. 19. 24. 24. 29. 32. 35. 39. 44. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.9 168.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/27/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.55 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.46 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 306.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.49 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 2.2% 5.3% 3.0% 1.7% 2.4% 4.2% 7.0% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 7.0% 0.3% 0.1% 2.1% 0.7% 0.7% 42.8% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/27/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##