* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/27/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 49 49 47 47 51 56 63 69 77 82 90 92 92 91 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 43 48 45 46 49 55 62 68 75 80 88 91 91 90 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 44 47 46 44 44 47 55 65 77 85 90 92 90 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 18 21 27 30 23 21 14 9 7 13 13 16 19 17 18 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 4 3 1 3 2 -1 0 1 -1 0 0 0 6 3 7 SHEAR DIR 299 294 282 284 290 278 291 283 298 207 224 210 230 228 243 250 255 SST (C) 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.2 29.2 29.4 30.4 30.9 30.4 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 148 149 150 156 156 159 171 171 170 170 168 163 165 163 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 148 146 145 147 150 147 147 161 168 154 145 141 135 135 133 126 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.1 -52.7 -52.2 -53.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 -52.2 -51.5 -51.6 -51.1 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 13 12 13 12 13 12 11 11 10 9 9 7 8 5 700-500 MB RH 54 53 52 53 54 55 56 60 60 64 59 59 55 55 57 58 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 15 15 13 13 15 16 18 21 24 26 31 33 34 36 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -19 -24 -26 -20 -24 -60 -55 -68 -33 -37 -1 10 24 19 36 42 200 MB DIV 16 40 49 25 8 16 29 24 28 43 28 58 24 42 34 26 31 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -10 -3 0 -5 8 1 5 5 5 5 7 7 10 3 4 LAND (KM) 394 240 86 -24 61 48 167 183 236 214 99 72 88 132 168 140 84 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.3 18.9 20.2 21.4 22.6 23.9 25.1 26.4 27.6 28.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.5 63.8 65.2 66.5 67.9 70.6 73.0 75.2 76.9 78.2 79.1 79.6 79.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 15 13 12 11 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 44 37 39 51 54 71 47 73 63 69 55 46 41 40 41 38 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 25. 27. 29. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 4. 6. 11. 13. 12. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 6. 11. 18. 24. 32. 37. 45. 47. 47. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.5 62.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/27/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.28 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.65 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 314.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 15.4% 10.5% 8.1% 7.6% 10.0% 10.3% 15.6% Logistic: 7.0% 8.8% 4.4% 4.4% 2.7% 7.6% 6.6% 14.4% Bayesian: 2.9% 12.7% 3.5% 0.4% 0.3% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% Consensus: 5.5% 12.3% 6.1% 4.3% 3.5% 6.4% 5.8% 10.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/27/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/27/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 43 48 45 46 49 55 62 68 75 80 88 91 91 90 18HR AGO 45 44 46 40 45 42 43 46 52 59 65 72 77 85 88 88 87 12HR AGO 45 42 41 35 40 37 38 41 47 54 60 67 72 80 83 83 82 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 40 37 38 41 47 54 60 67 72 80 83 83 82 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT