* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 08/27/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 52 59 72 81 90 96 102 106 110 111 109 108 106 104 V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 52 59 72 81 90 96 102 106 110 111 109 108 106 104 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 45 50 56 68 83 97 110 117 121 121 116 111 105 102 97 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 6 7 10 11 5 8 6 10 4 1 3 5 3 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -5 -2 -2 0 1 -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 319 305 319 332 344 10 359 358 34 36 26 347 111 267 282 286 274 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 28.9 28.4 28.7 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 158 159 159 160 160 159 153 148 151 145 142 141 141 140 137 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 70 71 72 71 70 69 68 65 60 58 58 61 65 68 71 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 15 16 19 20 24 27 30 32 34 36 36 38 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -11 -9 -5 -1 16 46 57 62 63 68 53 59 47 50 65 71 200 MB DIV 41 37 42 52 44 45 58 63 82 106 89 63 58 63 38 77 81 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 -1 0 2 -1 -3 -4 -5 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1334 1378 1434 1502 1578 1697 1840 1981 2117 2222 2317 2227 2042 1879 1743 1619 1498 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.7 14.1 14.7 15.5 16.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.7 117.0 118.3 119.5 120.7 122.8 124.9 126.8 128.7 130.6 132.4 134.2 135.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 27 23 25 27 30 31 27 30 29 18 21 15 18 26 23 25 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 22. 25. 27. 29. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 12. 16. 22. 25. 28. 27. 26. 26. 24. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 24. 37. 46. 55. 61. 67. 71. 75. 76. 74. 73. 71. 69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.2 115.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/27/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.80 10.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.76 7.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -7.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.24 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 54% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 58% is 12.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.9% 43.2% 31.8% 21.3% 12.7% 17.5% 54.1% 57.8% Logistic: 31.6% 69.6% 57.7% 42.5% 45.0% 49.7% 64.8% 51.4% Bayesian: 4.8% 74.4% 45.0% 18.2% 25.2% 72.9% 68.3% 10.5% Consensus: 17.1% 62.4% 44.8% 27.3% 27.7% 46.7% 62.4% 39.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/27/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##