* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/27/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 72 78 84 87 91 94 92 90 91 91 90 86 83 83 84 83 V (KT) LAND 65 72 78 84 87 91 94 92 90 91 91 90 86 83 83 83 81 V (KT) LGEM 65 72 78 83 87 93 97 99 99 98 96 93 89 87 86 85 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 12 13 15 10 11 10 4 6 4 8 10 19 17 16 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 2 2 1 -1 -1 1 -1 -4 4 0 -2 -3 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 101 100 100 87 90 97 89 130 158 167 196 229 236 238 237 278 284 SST (C) 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.6 28.1 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 151 150 148 149 147 146 143 141 141 140 141 139 144 144 142 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -51.3 -51.8 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.5 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 60 59 61 62 66 66 62 59 54 52 52 54 55 53 52 52 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 20 20 20 22 23 23 26 27 27 26 24 25 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR 72 69 58 62 65 64 70 78 74 72 74 76 76 77 89 95 95 200 MB DIV 78 65 53 52 55 30 34 14 25 -10 16 16 49 31 28 20 33 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 1 1 9 5 5 3 LAND (KM) 2078 1968 1858 1743 1629 1411 1207 1029 841 664 482 301 137 20 14 1 19 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.7 13.2 13.6 14.5 15.3 16.0 16.7 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.0 138.0 138.9 139.9 140.8 142.6 144.3 145.8 147.4 148.9 150.5 152.1 153.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 31 24 16 12 11 16 21 21 21 34 27 30 34 23 24 20 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 11. 8. 5. 6. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 19. 22. 26. 29. 27. 25. 26. 26. 25. 21. 18. 18. 19. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 12.0 137.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/27/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.50 8.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 10.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.40 5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 6.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 288.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 -7.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 10.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 8.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 53% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 4.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 52.9% 54.6% 45.8% 35.9% 26.4% 20.4% 16.0% 12.4% Logistic: 50.2% 60.4% 42.2% 38.5% 37.6% 17.2% 3.2% 1.2% Bayesian: 42.1% 68.1% 45.8% 29.4% 46.3% 28.4% 4.6% 0.0% Consensus: 48.4% 61.0% 44.6% 34.6% 36.8% 22.0% 7.9% 4.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/27/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##