* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/27/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 59 66 71 80 83 80 75 74 71 72 76 77 80 84 90 V (KT) LAND 45 52 59 66 71 80 83 80 75 74 71 72 76 77 80 84 90 V (KT) LGEM 45 52 59 65 70 77 82 84 84 83 82 84 88 92 97 106 116 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 12 14 12 11 11 11 8 8 6 9 12 17 5 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 0 -1 -4 -1 0 -2 -4 -3 -1 -3 -4 -5 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 250 251 267 276 280 268 272 279 299 269 262 240 234 246 261 280 298 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 28.9 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 149 150 153 155 156 152 149 151 153 156 153 154 155 152 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 53 55 57 58 61 61 59 63 67 70 71 66 61 57 57 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 15 15 14 13 13 13 13 16 17 19 20 25 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -35 -20 -7 1 20 22 15 14 2 2 -11 -9 -7 8 10 20 200 MB DIV 19 8 -6 -4 8 9 12 4 20 19 31 30 25 -4 0 0 25 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 2 2 5 5 3 2 4 1 LAND (KM) 914 936 958 994 1030 1134 1233 1349 1452 1552 1632 1694 1752 1768 1804 1841 1870 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 17.9 17.7 17.6 17.4 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.9 18.5 19.3 20.3 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 168.0 168.2 168.3 168.6 168.9 169.9 171.0 172.3 173.5 174.7 175.7 176.5 177.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 5 1 2 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 50 52 53 56 59 60 50 46 45 34 36 44 43 36 44 39 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 50.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 22. 24. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. 13. 14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 6. 6. 7. 8. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 21. 26. 35. 38. 35. 30. 29. 26. 27. 31. 32. 35. 39. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.0 168.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/27/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.64 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 270.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.51 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.50 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 14.7% 20.1% 12.8% 8.4% 8.1% 17.8% 44.5% 28.1% Bayesian: 1.3% 42.6% 6.6% 3.3% 3.7% 9.2% 8.9% 37.8% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/27/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##