* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/27/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 41 40 41 41 41 45 50 59 63 74 81 84 85 80 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 41 40 41 41 41 45 50 59 63 74 81 84 85 80 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 40 41 40 38 36 36 38 44 52 63 73 80 83 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 21 18 22 30 24 23 17 9 14 13 15 14 18 18 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -3 2 3 -1 1 0 -3 -3 -1 -2 0 0 2 4 4 SHEAR DIR 267 271 288 292 283 286 274 291 287 298 231 238 207 209 209 233 230 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.5 30.8 30.6 30.3 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 147 152 155 155 155 157 160 171 171 170 162 162 162 156 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 143 144 148 152 150 147 146 147 169 161 152 137 136 134 129 124 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.3 -52.9 -52.5 -53.2 -52.7 -53.1 -52.2 -52.1 -51.4 -51.2 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 13 13 12 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 8 9 6 8 700-500 MB RH 53 53 53 51 52 54 55 57 63 64 67 63 62 58 58 59 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 15 13 14 13 12 13 14 17 18 24 28 31 34 32 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -26 -35 -35 -40 -38 -51 -79 -62 -63 -20 -21 14 16 35 20 34 200 MB DIV 28 19 3 27 37 20 30 17 24 37 54 30 68 57 72 51 48 700-850 TADV -11 -7 -7 -11 -12 -4 -11 -6 -5 0 2 4 4 10 9 14 1 LAND (KM) 675 519 357 202 62 130 137 245 255 300 208 84 55 57 91 112 53 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.1 18.6 19.8 21.0 22.1 23.2 24.4 25.6 26.8 27.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.5 61.0 62.4 63.8 65.2 68.0 70.6 72.9 74.9 76.6 78.1 79.2 79.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 14 14 14 13 11 10 9 8 7 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 47 38 43 49 52 68 64 54 71 69 62 56 40 35 36 31 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 30. 33. 33. 33. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -7. -6. -3. -2. 5. 10. 12. 14. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 10. 19. 23. 34. 41. 44. 45. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.7 59.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/27/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.45 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.70 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 294.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 12.6% 8.4% 6.4% 6.0% 8.6% 9.3% 14.2% Logistic: 2.4% 7.9% 3.5% 2.7% 1.8% 6.5% 7.5% 16.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 2.4% 7.4% 4.1% 3.0% 2.6% 5.1% 5.7% 10.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/27/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/27/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 41 41 40 41 41 41 45 50 59 63 74 81 84 85 80 18HR AGO 40 39 40 40 39 40 40 40 44 49 58 62 73 80 83 84 79 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 35 36 36 36 40 45 54 58 69 76 79 80 75 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 30 30 30 34 39 48 52 63 70 73 74 69 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT