* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/26/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 64 69 73 81 85 89 90 90 90 89 84 84 80 80 78 V (KT) LAND 50 56 64 69 73 81 85 89 90 90 90 89 84 84 80 80 78 V (KT) LGEM 50 56 61 67 72 82 90 95 98 98 97 94 85 79 74 69 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 9 9 8 9 12 13 9 8 10 9 13 15 20 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -4 -2 -1 0 -4 -6 -5 -6 -1 0 4 2 3 1 3 SHEAR DIR 142 120 97 113 118 99 98 94 122 153 212 201 213 227 252 260 264 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 152 150 148 148 146 146 144 142 141 140 141 139 140 138 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.1 -51.2 -51.2 -51.6 -52.1 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 58 57 61 62 64 68 70 68 64 61 58 60 59 57 58 59 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 17 16 17 17 20 21 22 24 25 22 22 20 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 67 70 68 64 55 55 55 59 61 57 55 60 61 57 50 43 43 200 MB DIV 67 59 57 65 45 49 37 43 20 6 -21 35 17 47 33 29 25 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 3 2 0 1 0 7 8 8 8 LAND (KM) 2306 2217 2128 2025 1922 1708 1504 1306 1098 900 698 506 324 167 36 19 75 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.8 14.6 15.3 16.0 16.7 17.3 17.9 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.6 135.5 136.3 137.2 138.1 139.9 141.6 143.3 145.1 146.8 148.6 150.3 151.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 24 24 18 12 13 18 20 21 31 28 29 34 26 16 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 8. 9. 11. 13. 14. 9. 8. 5. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 19. 23. 31. 35. 39. 40. 40. 40. 39. 34. 34. 30. 30. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 12.2 134.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/26/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.63 13.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 10.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.70 11.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 7.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 227.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.66 -10.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 10.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 9.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 68% is 5.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 52% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 31.9% 67.7% 58.6% 45.6% 35.7% 25.6% 52.5% 26.9% Logistic: 29.9% 57.4% 41.3% 32.2% 37.0% 32.7% 30.6% 7.8% Bayesian: 25.9% 75.8% 53.1% 32.3% 21.5% 48.9% 30.1% 0.7% Consensus: 29.3% 67.0% 51.0% 36.7% 31.4% 35.7% 37.7% 11.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/26/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##