* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/26/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 44 53 61 68 71 74 79 86 89 91 96 102 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 44 53 61 68 71 74 79 86 89 91 96 102 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 48 54 59 64 70 80 90 98 108 118 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 12 14 15 15 14 9 10 11 10 9 9 17 17 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -4 -2 -1 -5 1 1 -2 -2 -3 0 -4 -2 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 233 235 252 260 266 276 286 288 268 275 266 276 247 248 261 265 301 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 148 150 150 151 154 156 154 150 149 152 156 155 153 152 148 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -50.8 -50.7 -50.4 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 55 55 55 57 59 62 63 61 65 66 70 72 67 68 65 64 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 14 16 17 19 19 20 21 25 27 28 32 36 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -41 -39 -32 -22 0 17 29 24 24 17 20 14 26 23 37 33 200 MB DIV 19 18 8 6 12 17 14 19 16 19 10 43 51 38 1 41 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 2 2 3 5 5 6 7 6 2 1 LAND (KM) 827 855 884 924 965 1061 1170 1296 1406 1505 1600 1683 1770 1675 1685 1738 1806 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 18.8 18.6 18.4 18.1 17.7 17.6 17.6 17.8 18.1 18.6 19.3 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 167.6 167.8 168.0 168.3 168.6 169.4 170.5 171.8 173.0 174.1 175.2 176.2 177.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 8 6 3 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 46 47 48 50 53 58 53 46 46 39 34 39 46 34 32 23 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 750 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 29. 31. 33. 35. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 12. 14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 12. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 19. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 23. 31. 38. 41. 44. 49. 56. 59. 61. 66. 72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.0 167.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/26/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.76 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 180.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 1.3% 4.0% 1.9% 0.8% 0.8% 1.7% 6.2% 6.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 18.2% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/26/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##