* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/26/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 60 64 71 76 80 84 87 86 87 86 85 82 82 83 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 60 64 71 76 80 84 87 86 87 86 85 82 72 71 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 59 64 73 81 86 90 93 93 92 88 81 74 68 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 9 8 10 10 9 12 9 10 9 11 10 12 10 15 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -4 -4 -2 -2 -3 -4 -3 -8 0 -2 0 0 1 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 147 140 112 98 110 104 120 107 102 114 167 187 209 225 232 230 232 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.7 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 153 153 152 149 147 148 147 146 143 143 140 141 140 140 145 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -50.7 -51.4 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 8 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 60 59 60 62 64 66 71 71 68 64 63 61 63 63 63 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 17 19 20 20 22 22 22 20 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 65 67 67 66 63 53 55 63 72 63 56 41 47 35 47 30 47 200 MB DIV 87 73 60 57 66 51 57 32 40 -3 4 -10 6 5 52 32 35 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 2 0 2 1 6 3 8 6 3 LAND (KM) 2382 2297 2212 2121 2030 1824 1625 1425 1227 1029 822 605 428 261 109 -2 25 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.5 12.6 13.2 13.9 14.6 15.3 16.0 16.7 17.4 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.8 134.7 135.5 136.4 137.2 139.0 140.7 142.4 144.1 145.8 147.6 149.5 151.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 28 22 22 24 25 14 12 15 20 21 22 35 28 34 33 24 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 9. 11. 11. 9. 6. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 19. 26. 31. 35. 39. 42. 41. 42. 41. 40. 37. 37. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.3 133.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/26/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.68 12.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 9.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.69 9.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 7.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 197.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 -8.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 7.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 6.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 57% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 42% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.6% 55.6% 47.2% 34.8% 25.3% 18.9% 56.6% 42.1% Logistic: 13.7% 40.8% 26.4% 18.1% 22.9% 21.1% 37.7% 13.1% Bayesian: 12.6% 48.2% 28.8% 10.2% 5.7% 26.8% 29.6% 3.8% Consensus: 15.6% 48.2% 34.2% 21.0% 18.0% 22.2% 41.3% 19.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/26/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##