* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/26/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 34 34 35 35 35 35 36 38 41 46 49 49 52 51 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 34 34 35 35 35 35 36 38 41 46 49 49 52 51 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 35 34 32 31 30 30 30 33 36 40 45 50 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 18 15 16 20 20 25 25 25 17 18 11 14 9 17 17 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 3 -1 -1 -3 -2 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 1 -2 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 272 284 287 279 284 298 297 297 291 312 321 324 306 292 287 271 275 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.5 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 30.2 30.8 30.5 29.9 29.7 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 143 146 146 153 153 154 155 157 172 171 170 166 161 162 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 138 142 145 144 150 147 147 145 145 160 169 156 141 135 134 133 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 56 53 52 51 52 53 55 55 57 60 61 63 65 65 61 61 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 12 11 11 9 7 6 6 6 5 6 6 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -11 -16 -20 -25 -35 -42 -48 -77 -93 -99 -80 -77 -59 -54 -30 -38 200 MB DIV -9 6 20 20 16 6 11 5 5 0 14 13 21 20 21 24 1 700-850 TADV -8 -6 -10 -16 -11 -11 -12 -7 -10 -8 -1 -3 0 4 2 5 4 LAND (KM) 845 752 693 625 451 129 78 64 168 211 266 285 129 70 63 70 96 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.9 17.2 18.1 19.2 20.2 21.3 22.3 23.6 25.0 26.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.2 56.8 58.4 60.0 61.6 64.5 67.2 69.6 71.9 73.9 75.8 77.5 78.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 15 14 13 13 11 11 10 10 7 5 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 23 30 51 43 39 45 63 91 52 62 69 67 59 50 40 38 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 29. 33. 36. 37. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -15. -16. -18. -20. -20. -20. -20. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 14. 14. 17. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.9 55.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/26/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.54 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.70 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 12.5% 8.4% 6.3% 5.8% 8.9% 9.9% 14.7% Logistic: 3.7% 15.3% 8.0% 4.5% 3.2% 9.4% 9.2% 23.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 3.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 2.7% 10.4% 5.6% 3.6% 3.0% 6.2% 6.4% 12.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/26/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/26/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 34 34 35 35 35 35 36 38 41 46 49 49 52 51 18HR AGO 35 34 34 33 33 34 34 34 34 35 37 40 45 48 48 51 50 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 30 31 31 31 31 32 34 37 42 45 45 48 47 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 26 26 26 26 27 29 32 37 40 40 43 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT