* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 08/26/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 50 53 60 65 70 75 79 81 81 81 81 81 83 84 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 50 53 60 65 70 75 79 81 81 81 81 81 65 72 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 50 54 61 68 75 80 84 86 84 80 75 70 56 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 7 6 12 8 9 7 6 5 8 13 14 18 18 23 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -3 -3 -5 -2 -2 -2 -4 -2 -4 0 -3 0 1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 145 157 143 93 94 118 101 137 139 187 200 228 220 237 243 251 247 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 28.3 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 149 149 148 146 148 147 145 143 140 140 140 141 147 150 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 61 60 61 61 64 66 68 70 69 67 64 63 61 62 64 64 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 14 13 15 16 17 18 19 20 19 19 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR 56 63 67 66 61 55 44 43 47 48 43 29 23 23 16 14 35 200 MB DIV 88 85 60 43 51 44 49 36 18 22 2 -2 14 9 24 14 44 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 0 1 2 4 4 5 6 5 5 3 LAND (KM) 2439 2360 2282 2193 2104 1903 1693 1503 1304 1106 913 706 491 275 71 -17 67 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.4 12.3 12.4 12.5 13.0 13.7 14.4 15.1 15.8 16.4 17.1 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.2 134.0 134.8 135.7 136.5 138.3 140.1 141.7 143.4 145.1 146.8 148.6 150.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 18 17 19 23 17 11 13 15 17 19 30 25 31 32 26 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 19. 21. 22. 23. 24. 24. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 25. 30. 35. 39. 41. 41. 41. 41. 41. 43. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.4 133.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 08/26/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.69 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.68 5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 170.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 -4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 27.3% 22.1% 17.1% 11.7% 15.2% 24.9% 31.9% Logistic: 7.0% 27.1% 17.1% 10.8% 12.3% 13.6% 25.6% 16.5% Bayesian: 4.3% 25.1% 9.8% 2.5% 2.4% 7.4% 7.8% 1.7% Consensus: 8.2% 26.5% 16.3% 10.2% 8.8% 12.0% 19.5% 16.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 08/26/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##